Filters
Summary
Total entries5
Repeat3
Adapt1
Do not repeat1
Avg accuracy59%
Risk Allocation
Proven · 3 entries · $22,800
100%/ 70%
Testing · 1 entries · $0
0%/ 20%
Experimental · 1 entries · $0
0%/ 10%
Platforms
Google Ads→Experiments · Prediction vs Actual
Repeat · 8.8proven
Budget −$2,000 · linkedin
LinkedIn · 7d ago
Before
Predicted
Actual
CPA
$88.60
CPA Delta
—
CPA Delta
−$16.42
ROAS
5.66
ROAS Delta
—
ROAS Delta
+1.25
Prediction Accuracy84%
LinkedIn-to-Google reallocation delivered significant CPA improvement. LinkedIn CPA fell from $88.60 to $72.18 as reduced spend improved targeting efficiency. Google absorbed reallocated budget and improved further. Net mandate impact strongly positive. Pattern confirmed: when Google AEO intent CPA is below mandate and LinkedIn is above, reallocation is the correct action.
linkedin_to_google_reallocation
Repeat · 9.6proven
Bid +20% · Google Ads
Google Ads · 7d ago
Before
Predicted
Actual
CPA
$58.40
CPA Delta
−$8
CPA Delta
−$10.45
ROAS
8.61
ROAS Delta
+0.90
ROAS Delta
+1.80
Prediction Accuracy92%
Pre-peak bid amplification on AEO intent keywords delivered $10.45 CPA reduction vs predicted $8.00. 92% prediction accuracy. ROAS improved 1.80 vs predicted 0.90 — significantly outperformed. Trend peak timing T-5 to T-3 confirmed as optimal entry window for this keyword cluster. Pattern is highly reliable.
pre_peak_bid_amplification_google
Do not repeat · 1.4experimental
Audience expansion · linkedin
LinkedIn · 14d ago
Before
Predicted
Actual
CPA
$71.20
CPA Delta
−$5
CPA Delta
$23.60
ROAS
7.04
ROAS Delta
+0.50
ROAS Delta
-1.76
Prediction Accuracy0%
Audience expansion to broad Marketing Director targeting severely degraded performance. CPA worsened $23.60 — opposite of prediction. Broad marketing director audience has significantly lower purchase intent for a $499/month AEO SaaS tool than the strict Agency MD and Head of Digital segments. Hard constraint created: never expand beyond strict agency and digital leadership targeting on LinkedIn. The narrow audience is the asset.
linkedin_audience_expansion_damage
Adapt · 6.2testing
Negative keywords · Google Ads
Google Ads · 18d ago
Before
Predicted
Actual
CPA
$61.30
CPA Delta
−$6
CPA Delta
−$2.90
ROAS
8.20
ROAS Delta
+0.70
ROAS Delta
+0.41
Prediction Accuracy48%
Negative keyword addition improved CPA marginally — $2.90 vs predicted $6.00. Informational intent queries were a smaller proportion of waste than predicted. More aggressive negative keyword list needed — "how to" and "guide" variants not yet excluded. Good directional action, insufficient scope. Recommend second pass with expanded negative list before next peak window.
negative_keyword_refinement
Repeat · 7.9proven
Bid −30% · linkedin
LinkedIn · 21d ago
Before
Predicted
Actual
CPA
$79.40
CPA Delta
—
CPA Delta
−$5.20
ROAS
6.30
ROAS Delta
—
ROAS Delta
+0.38
Prediction Accuracy72%
Weekend bid reduction consistent improvement. Agency and B2B decision-maker audiences show significantly lower conversion intent Saturday and Sunday — titles not actively evaluating tools outside working hours. $5.20 CPA improvement. Recommend maintaining as standing weekly schedule. Does not apply to Google Ads — search intent is day-agnostic for this product.
weekend_linkedin_bid_reduction
Pending Actions
high priorityConf. 0.91
Increase Google Ads AEO intent cluster bids by 22% from $4.10 to $5.00. Add expanded negative keyword list — second pass on informational intent queries. Google is converting at $47.95 CPA with AEO intent cluster at $31.20. Pre-peak trend window is open — T-6 days to estimated breakout peak. Receive $2,500 reallocation from LinkedIn.
Est. CPA
−$9
Est. ROAS
+1.20
Timeframe
72hr
high priorityConf. 0.88
Reduce LinkedIn daily budget by $2,500. LinkedIn CPA is $72.18 — 44% above mandate. Despite competitor dark creating share of voice opportunity, absolute CPA is too inefficient to justify current budget weight. Reallocate to Google Ads where CPA is $47.95 and improving.
Est. CPA
—
Est. ROAS
—
Timeframe
72hr
Learned Constraints
Agency Plan US — Campaign Rules and Guardrails
Hard rules: never expand LinkedIn beyond strict agency and digital leadership targeting. B2B channels only. Minimum lead quality score 0.65. Brand safety excludes news and politics. Soft rules: prefer Google AEO intent keywords. Reduce LinkedIn bids 30% on weekends. Google is primary conversion channel. Pause LinkedIn if CPA exceeds $150 for 48hr. Learned rules: LinkedIn audience expansion destroys CPA — hard stop. Pre-peak Google bid amplification T-5 to T-3 is highly effective. LinkedIn-to-Google reallocation when Google below mandate is a confirmed positive pattern. Negative keyword second pass always needed.
analysis_bot